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Real Estate Market Analysis

Real Estate Market Analysis Second Edition
(#R49 book) is available from ULI’s online bookstore at www.uli.org/bookstore or by calling 800-321-5011.

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Past Conferences

12th Annual ULI Europe Conference

Competing for the Future: Real Estate in 2008

6 February 2008
InterContinental Paris Le Grand
Paris, France

Programme Brochure (PDF)

Brochure (PDF)

List of Attendees (PDF)

Sponsors

Conference Presentations

Climate and the Built Environment - Sir David King (PPT)

EU REIT (PPT)

India vs China - AJ Jaganathan (PPT)

Market Spotlight on Turkey (PPT)

Solving the EU Housing Crisis - Frederique Monjanel (PPT)

Solving the EUs Housing Crisis - ARUP (PPT)

Solving the EUs Housing Crisis - R Bayley (PPT)

Superstar Cities - Greg Clark (PPT)

The Global Economy (Keynote) - Evan Davis (PPT)

ULI Council Office and Mixed Use - Hans van Tartvijk (PPT)

ULI General Assembly - J deKreij (PPT)

ULI General Assembly - T Mansfield (PPT)

U.S. Subprime Market Crisis - P Harned (PPT)

Value Capture Finance - Maureen McAvey (PPT)

Value Capture Finance - Greg Clark (PPT)

Infoburst - Property Derivatives (PPT)

Mature and Emerging Markets SM Update (PPT)

Amsterdam Global Competitor (PPT)

Barcelona Dragons' Den (PPT)

Munich Dragons' Den (PPT)

Sherin Aminossehe (PPT)

Socially Responsible Investing - C Hughes (PPT)


Conference Videos

PropertyEU covering the conference:
http://www.sherpamedia.nl/player/player2.cfm?c=PropertyULI

Business Immo covering the conference:
http://www.brightcove.tv/channel.jsp?channel=330998786&lineup=1407950501&firstVideo=0


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ULI Looks Ahead in Europe

"In ten, 20 years time, our whole way of life is going to be transformed by the demands associated with our reduced carbon footprint."

Sir David King
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government, UK
Keynote Speaker
ULI Europe Conference
February 6, 2008
Paris, France

Sir David King discusses sustainable land use issues with a journalist during the recent ULI Europe conference.

Click here to view the video.

Conference Partners

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Media Partners

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Conference Photos

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Conference Overview

European property markets have long defied gravity. Is the credit crisis a sign that the laws of nature and market cycles are immutable? Or, is current turbulence a ‘correction’ and are fundamentals still sound? The one certainty is that 2008 will reward insight and punish ignorance. Investors, developers and advisors who anticipate and adapt their strategies will prosper.

Join ULI in a new venue in Paris for what will be a timely, provocative and informative debate on the implications of current trends for property markets, companies and professionals. From the ‘macro to the micro’ this year’s conference will deliver valuable and candid insights on the challenges and opportunities that will define real estate in Europe in 2008.


What You Will Learn

  • Which markets and sectors look set to profit from the storm.
  • Is now the time to focus or diversify, to buy or to sell, to seek shelter or go for it.
  • Where are deals getting done and who is doing them.
  • Key economic and market trends shaping the strategies of international investors.
  • How to navigate and network European property development, investment and capital markets.

Who Should Attend

Property professionals and service providers including developers; owners; architects; designers; public sector officials; consultants; international investment funds; institutions; financiers and lenders seeking greater insights into opportunites throughout Europe.


A ULI Global Real Estate Conference

ULI-the Urban Land Institute conducts a series of individual annual conferences on real estate developement, investment, and capital market trends and opportunities in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. These conferences serve as both networking and market intelligence exchange platforms for real estate developers and investors from across the globe. 


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Conference Chair

Jeremy Newsum
Group Chief Executive
Grosvenor
London, United Kingdom

Newsum is the group chief executive of Grosvenor, a private real estate development and investment company with interests in Central London, elsewhere in the UK, Continental Europe, South East Asia, North America and Australia.  The Group operates in all sectors of the property market and manages total assets of £11bn.   

After reading Estate Management at Reading University, Newsum joined Grosvenor in 1976. He left to join Savills in 1979.  In 1984, he established a London office for Bidwells.  In 1987, he returned to Grosvenor and was appointed chief executive in 1989 and a Trustee of the Grosvenor Estate in 1993.   He has been involved with international property for the past 17 years.   

He is a director of Sonae Sierra (50% owned by Grosvenor).   He is also a member of the Council of Imperial College, London and of the Advisory Board to the Land Economy Department at University of Cambridge. He was President of the British Property Federation for the year 2001/2002. Newsum was a member of the Assets Committee of the Church Commissioners from 1993 until December 2000 and a Director of the French property company, Société Foncière Lyonnaise, from 1997–2002.

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Conference Moderator

Alec Emmott
Principal, Europroperty Consulting, Paris, France

After working in South Africa, the US and the UK, Emmott moved to France in 1973 and has been active in the Paris market as developer, and investment manager (with the French operating companies of the AVIVA group), throughout this time.

From 1997 to 2007 Emmott was managing director of SFL, one of the first French listed property companies to opt for SIIC (tax transparent) status, and becoming one of the principal domestic actors in the commercial real estate market in Paris. He remains an advisor to SFL, and has recently created Europroperty Consultants to advise both investors and investees on governance practice in the listed and unlisted European property sectors.

Emmott is also non-executive chairman of the European Asset Value Fund, and a director of Crownstone European Properties He is a special adviser to the French Federation of Property Companies (FSIF) anda director of Investment Property Databank France (IPD). He was a founding member of the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA) and was a member of the working party of the French Stock exchange on property valuation practice for the listed sector. He is also non-executive director for various funds within the Martin Currie Group.

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Keynote Speakers

Evan Davis
Economics Editor, BBC, London, United Kingdom

Davis has been the Economics Editor of the BBC since October 2001.  He is the most senior economics reporter in the BBC, responsible for analysing economic developments on a range of programmes on BBC radio and television, particularly theTen O’Clock News. Davis is also the presenter of the BBC2 business reality show,Dragons Den and the Radio 4 business discussion programme,The Bottom Line.  He has received numerous awards, including the Work Foundation’s Broadcast Journalist of the Year award in 1998, 2001 and 2003, and the Harold Wincott Business Broadcaster of the Year award in 2002 and 2005.  Davis has written numerous papers, articles and newspaper and magazine columns as well as the book, Public Spending , published by Penguin in 1998. He is also a co-author of the Penguin Dictionary of Economics and the New Penguin Dictionary of Business.   He sits on the council of the Royal Economic Society and has previously served at the BBC as a general economics correspondent, and then Economics Editor on New Penguin Dictionary of Business.   He sits on the council of the Royal Economic Society and has previously served at the BBC as a general economics correspondent, and then Economics Editor onCombat, the legendary newspaper founded by Albert Camus during the Nazi occupation of France , Lévy became famous as the founder of the New Philosophers group.

Lévy is the author of 30 books, including works of philosophy, fiction, and biography and is an activist and filmmaker. His books includeBarbarism with a Human Face,Reflections on War,Century of Sartre,Evil and the End of History,Who Killed Daniel Pearl?, andAmerican Vertigo (January 2006). His films include the documentariesBosna! andA Day in the Death of Sarajevo. Lévy is co-founder of the antiracist group SOS Racism and has served on diplomatic missions for the French government, most recently heading a fact finding mission to Afghanistan  in the wake of the war against the Taliban.

During 2005, Lévy traveled throughout the United States in the footsteps of another great Frenchman, Alexis de Tocqueville, whoseDemocracy in America remains the most influential book ever written about our country. The result is his new book, American Vertigo (2006), a fascinating, fresh look at a country we sometimes only think we know.

Image Sir David King
Currently Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
United Kingdom

Sir David King was appointed as the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of the Office of Science and Technology in October 2000  (now the Government Office for Science – GO-Science *). Born in South Africa  in 1939, and after an early career at the University of Witwatersrand, Imperial College and the University of East Anglia, he became the Brunner Professor of Physical Chemistry at the University of Liverpool  in 1974. In 1988, he was appointed 1920 Professor of Physical Chemistry at the University of Cambridge and subsequently became Master of Downing College (1995-2000), and Head of the University Chemistry Department (1993-2000). He retains his position asDirector of Research in the Department of Chemistry at Cambridge University.

* TheGovernment Office for Science, headed by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA) Sir David King was created in July 2007 within the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills (DIUS), reporting to the Prime Minister and Cabinet.


Full Conference Programme

Tuesday 5 February

18.30-20.30

ULI Cocktail Reception
(Open to Council Members and conference attendees)

Wednesday 6 February

09.00-09.15
Conference Welcome and Introduction

  • Conference Moderator: Alec Emmott, Principal, Europroperty Consulting, France
  • Conference Chair: Jeremy Newsum, Group Chief Executive, Grosvenor, London, UK

09.15-10.00
Plenary Keynote Session: 
The Global Economy – Pausing for Breath or Teetering on the Edge?

Evan Davis, BBC Economics Editor, BBC, London, United Kingdom

Real estate investment and development is a relatively long term play and utterly dependant on the state of the economy. In ULI tradition, the conference will kick off with an insightful review of the key global economic risks and trends – what they mean for Europe and the real estate industry.

10:00-10:15
Info Burst:  Superstar Cities

Greg Clark , ULI EMEA Senior Fellow, London, United Kingdom

Which cities will be the leading cities at the end of the 21st Century? Will London and New York who led the way in the 20th Century still be at the top? The very cities with which London and New York are competing for business – long standing centres such as Tokyo and Hong Kong – as well as the urban centres in emerging regions, such as Shanghai and Dubai – share many of the same challenges. 

10:15 – 11:15
Concurrent Sessions:

The Big Picture – Key Markets in Perspective

Real estate is a global industry competing regionally and locally for attention and capital. Does diversification reduce or increase risk? Which markets will stand out in 2008 and why? How does Europe fare on the global stage? Join one of these concurrent sessions to learn where the opportunities and challenges are.

(I) Debate - India vs. ChinaBattleof the Titans

Referee:Alec Emmott , Principal, Europroperty Consulting, ParisFrance

Will India catch China? A panel of experts will argue the case for why India or China is the better development and investment opportunity, outlining the underlying fundamentals driving growth, current trends and issues.  

Team India:
Jairaj Amin, Managing Director-Europe, Middle East and India, Hypo Real Estate Bank International, London, United Kingdom
Brian Garrison, Managing Director, Forest City, International, London, United Kingdom
AJ Jaganathan , Chairman, Middle East & South Asia Business Hub, Laing O’Rourke, Dubai , UAE
Dennis Lopez, Head of Real Estate, Cambridge Place, London, United Kingdom

Team China:

Stephen Barter, Group Projects Director, Grosvenor, London, United Kingdom
Ian Hawksworth , Managing Director, Capital & Counties, London, United Kingdom
Peter Nolan, Professor of Chinese Management , Judge Business School-University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom (invited)

(II) Three Wise Men and a Dame: Tales from the Past and Lessons for 2008

Three of the industry’s leaders share their tales and insights from the darkest days of property. Will their hindsight, as recession survivors, help your foresight?

Moderator:
Scott Malkin, Chairman, Value Retail, London, United Kingdom

Panellists:
Karl Petrikovics, Chief Executive Officer, Immofinanz, Vienna, Austria
Dame Judith Jonas DBE, London, United Kingdom
Michael Strong, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer--EMEA, CBRE, London, United Kingdom

11.15-11:45
Break

11:45-12:45
Inside Track on Key Global Markets: Windows of opportunity

ULI District Council leaders will assemble a panel of experts from their local market. These small, intimate sessions are where you can find out what is really going on and identify where the opportunities and challenges lie. 

Market Spotlights on:

I Turkey

Leader: Hakan Kodal , General Manager, KREA Gayrimenkul/Real Estate, Istanbul, Turkey

II Russia

Leader: Arnaud Dubois, Managing Director-Partner, MAGIM, Moscow, Russia

III Emerging Europe

Leader: Markus J. Leininger, Head Central and Eastern Europe,  Eurohypo, Eschborn, Germany 

IV Germany

Leader: Reinhard Kutscher, Chairman of Management Board, Union Investment Real Estate, Hamburg, Germany

V Italy

Leader: Luca de Ambrosis Ortigara, Partner, Realty Partners, Milan, Italy

Finance Track:

(VI) EU REIT

A coalition of the European real estate industry has asked the European Commission for EU REIT legislation providing a pan-European property investment vehicle for companies and savers. Leaders of the campaign will discuss how an EU REIT will overcome the obstacles that cross-border investors face today, increase market safety and provide the European scale needed for specialised real estate. The audience will be invited to join the debate and the campaign. Participants will receive a copy of the Maastricht University report “The EU REIT and the Internal Market for Real Estate.

Wolfgang KÃ?lberer , Head of EU Representation, German Mortgage Banks, Brussels, Belgium
Michael MacBrien, Director General, European Property Federation, Brussels, Belgium
Joaquim Ribeiro
, Finance Director, Sonae Sierra/Chairman of the EU REIT Coalition, Porto, Portugal
Simon Rubinsohn, Chief Economist, RICS, London, United Kingdom

(VII) JESSICA

EU Structural Funds can now be used to capitalise new urban development funds. These funds are aimed at partnering with private investors to take forward urban investment and can provide equity capital, repayable grants, guarantees, or endowments. How are these new urban development funds working? And what part should private sector developers and investors play in their design and development?

Brian Field , Senior Economist, European Investment Bank, Luxembourg

(VIII) Value Capture Finance

Value Capture Finance is a broad term applied to mechanisms which leverage some of the financial value created by the impact of development to help finance the infrastructure and other costs of making that development work. Is TIF, the American approach, the best, or can some of Europe’s approaches start to add up? Come and here what is happening in UK, Netherlands, France, and Germany to capture development value to promote local investment.

Andrew Carter , Director, Rocket Science UK, London, United Kingdom

12.45-14.15

General Lunch

Women in Real Estate Lunch (by invitation)

14:15-15:00 
Plenary Keynote Session:

Climate and the Built Environment

Sir David King, Chief Scientific Advisor to HM Government, London, United Kingdom

“Climate change is the biggest global challenge we face collectively. We must act, and quickly, both to reduce the future impacts of climate change, and to adapt to those impacts that we cannot avoid. The built environment and urban development is a key to that challenge” Sir David King.

Sir David will discuss the challenge of building a sustainable urban environment in the face of the problems of planet-wide climate change. Learn how to align investment and development strategies with long term drivers of success. 

15:00-15:15
Info Burst

U.S. Sub-prime Market Crisis

Steve Blank, ULI Senior Resident Fellow – Finance, Washington, D.C., USA

Drawing on ULI’s breadth of knowledge, join Senior Resident Fellow, Blank, to learn the truth about the US sub-prime mortgage meltdown and how it has affected the commercial property industry. 

15:15-16:15
Concurrent sessions:

(I) Capital Markets in Transition:  Seeing Through the Fog

The session will look back at the events of the past six months in the European capital markets, assess the state of the markets today, and use the lessons of the past (both recent and not so recent) to anticipate how conditions in the investment and debt markets will unfold in 2008 and beyond.  What are the opportunities and threats?  What will change?  Who will be the winners and losers?  What are the lessons learned?

Moderator:
Marc Mogull, Managing Partner, Benson Elliot Capital Management, London, United Kingdom

Panellists:
Eric Sasson, Managing Director - Europe Real Estate,Carlyle, Paris, France
Ed Siskind, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs International, London, United Kingdom
Ellen Brunsberg, European Head of the Securitised Products Group, Morgan Stanley, London, United Kingdom
Doug Tiesi, Head of Europe, RBS Real Estate Finance, London, United Kingdom

(II) Infrastructure Investment: Lost Cost or Performing Asset?

Public infrastructure from airports, rail and roads to schools, hospitals and prisons are for sale by cash strapped governments. The quality of this infrastructure is vital to the success of a city and its property markets. Who is buying these assets and why? Where do the opportunities lie and what does the trend mean for the real estate industry?

Moderator:
Maureen McAvey
, Executive Vice President, ULI, Washington, D.C., USA

Panellists: 
Ad Buisman, Chairman, Ernst & Young European Real Estate Hospitality and Construction Group, Apeldoorn, The Netherlands
John McCarthy, Head of Europe, RREEF Infrastructure, London, United Kingdom
Vincent Piron, Director of Strategy and Investments, Vinci Concessions, Paris, France

(III) Solving the EU’s Housing Crisis: Can Eco Towns and Low Carbon Cities Do It?

Population growth and mobility means that housing demand in some parts of the answer and how can we deliver them?

Moderator:
Greg Clark, ULI EMEA Senior Fellow, London, United Kingdom

(IV) What’s Valuable about Sustainability?

Previously urban development has seen the provision of social infrastructure as being the preserve of the public sector. Not any more. Governments are increasingly expecting the real estate community to contribute to both its funding and provision.  Building on the findings of ULI’s research, join this session to discuss how investment in social infrastructure can protect and enhance the value of investments and the challenges and opportunities of sustainable development.

(V) “European Real Estate – a Brand Worth Protecting?” Workshop

Why does our industry have a reputation for being more part of the problem than part of the solution? What changes do we need to embrace to enhance image and expand our potential to make a difference? Help us put together an outline of steps to rectify negative perceptions and build a strong brand for the industry.

Sheila Tully, Managing Director, Appetite, London, United Kingdom

16:15-16:45
Break

16:45-17:30
Plenary Keynote Session:

A Changing America: Implications for Europe and the World

Bernard-Henri Lévy, Philosopher/Author, Paris, France

2008 may be the most important election year in America’s history. The country is at a crossroads politically, economically and socially. From religious fundamentalism and polarized politics to a weak dollar and a strong China, the stakes for the world could not be greater. Join Bernard-Henri Lévy, celebrated philosopher and bestselling author, for unique insights into the issues at the heart of the challenges facing America, its changing role in the world and what it means for Europe.

17:30
Conference Close

ULI coffee bar open - stay a while and network or grab a coffee to set you on your way home.

MORE FROM ULI …

Pre-conference Events:

Full Member & Leadership Programme

Monday 4 February

20.00-22.30
ULI Executive Committee Dinner

Tuesday 5 February

09:00-16:00
2008 Winter Council Day

Product Council Meetings

(open to council members and guests)

  ‘**New**’

16:30-18:30
Council & Full Member Summit

(open to council members and ULI Europe full members)

For the first time ULI has organized a special session as part of the Paris conference exclusively for European Full Members and Product Council Members. This forum will provide insights into the key issues and trends discussed during the preceding Council meetings and an opportunity to preview and help shape the Institute’s priorities for the year ahead.  Featuring:

Product Council Showcase

Representatives from ULI Europe’s 5 Product Councils will share perspectives and conclusions from their respective Council sessions. Highlights from the Retail and Entertainment, Office and Mixed Use, Resort & Hotel Development, Sustainability and Regeneration Councils we be followed by a debate and discussion of their implications.

ULI General Assembly: Chairmen’s Report

Step up to shape the future of ULI in Europe and beyond. What are the challenges and opportunities shaping the Institute’s priorities and strategy? What are the new investments and initiatives that will soon transform what it means to be a member of ULI? How can you enhance the benefits of membership and get the most out of ULI? Hear ULI’s Global Chairman, Todd Mansfield and Europe Chairman, Jan de Kreij set out the vision for ULI’s European and global strategy.

20.00-22.30
ULI Leadership Dinner (invitation only)

Wednesday 6 February

08.00-09.00
Committee Meetings

(programme advisory board, policy & practice and membership committee)

Also on the Programme...

Tuesday 5 February

Young Leaders

14.00-18.30
European Young Leaders Forum 

(open to ULI Young Leader members and guests under the age of 35)

Building on the highly successful Young Leaders event at ULI’s 2007 Paris conference, this unique programme will bring together real estate professionals and executives from across Europe. How do the next generation of industry leadership view the capital markets turbulence and what can be learned from past industry crisis? Fast paced, provocative and informative debates and discussion will explore the key trends and issues.

18:30-20:00
Young Leaders Reception

PEPCIG Meeting:  Pan-European Property Common Interest Group
PEPCIG members-only meeting (invitation only)

Chair:  Michael Haddock, Director, CB Richard Ellis, London, United Kingdom

Wednesday 6 February

New Members

08.00-09.00
New Member Networking Breakfast

Women in Real Estate (WiRE)

Women in Real Estate Lunch (by invitation)